Stablecoins have seen $14.2 billion in outflows over the past 30 days, a December Fed rate hike is all but certain, and bullish defense lines are facing pressure.

Written by Ma He, Foresight News

BTC has remained under sustained selling pressure recently. According to Bitget market data, after hitting a recent high of $87,000 in late September this year, BTC has trended downward continuously, successively falling below key support levels of $80,000 and $76,000, even dipping to a low of $72,732 at one point. It is currently fluctuating around $74,000. ETH has also pulled back from its September high of $2,800 to $2,005, nearly breaching the critical $2,000 support line.

In addition, MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) announced on November 12 that it will remove Strategy and Metaplanet from its global indices under its new screening methodology for non-operating companies, with the adjustment effective on December 1, which also brings notable pressure to the market.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the market is currently gripped by panic sentiment.

Why has the crypto market seen weak rebounds and steep declines?

Nasdaq Correction and Jensen Huang's Affair Controversy

This sharp pullback in the crypto market is not an isolated incident, but has developed a painful synchronized downward correlation with the U.S. tech sector, particularly amid the sudden black swan event in the AI industry.

The Nasdaq has entered a correction since early October this year, posting four consecutive weekly declines, which has triggered concerns in the U.S. AI market.

Weekly Chart of the Nasdaq-100 Index ETF

Recently, NVIDIA, the undisputed bellwether for global risk assets, has been hit by a bombshell scandal.

NVIDIA founder and CEO Jensen Huang has admitted to an extramarital affair with a female executive (Alice Huang), prompting NVIDIA's board to launch an urgent independent review. More critically, alongside facing a class-action lawsuit from shareholders, The Wall Street Journal reported that the board is even considering removing Jensen Huang from his post, which led to NVIDIA's stock plunging by roughly 8%! in after-hours trading at one point. (MISSING)

The "Leather Jacket Guru's" personal ethics scandal instantly morphed into a systemic risk for the entire tech stock sector. Amid Wall Street's extreme concerns over national security risks and leadership turmoil at leading AI firms, panic spread rapidly outward, triggering a new round of tech stock declines.

As a high-beta asset correlated with the Nasdaq, BTC has become a key source of cash for institutional funds rotating to safe havens.

After CPI Data Release, a December Fed Rate Hike Is All but Certain

The U.S. October CPI data released this week has reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December. Headline CPI for October rose 0.4%! month-on-month, (MISSING) beating market expectations of 0.3%!; (MISSING) core CPI rose 0.3%! month-on-month, (MISSING) also exceeding the projected 0.2%!. (MISSING) Following the data release, traders' pricing of the rate hike magnitude for the December meeting has shifted noticeably to the right.

According to Polymarket data, as of November 12, the market's implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December Fed interest rate decision meeting is 86%!, (MISSING) the probability of a 50 basis point or higher hike is around 10%!, (MISSING) and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is only roughly 3%!. (MISSING) The probability of a 50 basis point hike was close to zero before the CPI release, and has risen sharply after the data was published. A 25 basis point hike remains the dominant pricing outcome at present, but the possibility of a larger rate increase has already been factored in.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller previously stated that if the October core CPI reading came in at 0.3%! or (MISSING) higher, he would consider supporting a 50 basis point rate hike at the December meeting. After the CPI data was released, the market's discussion has shifted from "whether to hike rates" to "whether the hike will be 25 or 50 basis points". The current federal funds rate target range is 3.75%, and a 25 basis point hike would raise the range to 4.00%.

Rising rate hike expectations are putting pressure on risk assets. U.S. Treasury yields have risen markedly after the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, and equity markets are under pressure. For the crypto market, higher rate expectations mean a further tightening of liquidity conditions, with a corresponding drop in risk appetite. Against the backdrop of already shrinking stablecoin supply, if the Fed confirms its rate hike path in December, the incremental capital available to the market will become even more limited.

Stablecoin Supply Sees $14.2 Billion in Outflows Over the Past 30 Days

The total market cap of stablecoins continues to decline. According to DefiLlama data, as of November 12, the total stablecoin market cap across the entire market is approximately $286.9 billion, down 0.12%! from the previous day, (MISSING) down 1.47%! over the past 7 days, (MISSING) and down 4.82%! over the past 30 days. (MISSING)

Of this total, USDT has a market cap of roughly $175.7 billion, accounting for 61.22%! of the total; (MISSING) USDC has a market cap of around $69.9 billion.

An on-chain report released by glassnode on the same day shows that the supply of major stablecoins has decreased by $14.2 billion over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly contraction since June 2022. Back then, the market saw a nearly $30 billion 30-day supply shrinkage after the Terra collapse, and Bitcoin subsequently fell to around $15,500 in November of that year.

glassnode noted in the report that the supply reduction means holders are redeeming their stablecoins for U.S. dollars and exiting the market, leaving less "fuel" available to drive market rebounds. At the same time, some smaller and mid-sized stablecoins are seeing faster redemption rates, while a small number of stablecoins such as RLUSD and USDe have posted slight growth, but this has not reversed the overall net outflow trend.

The total stablecoin supply has now fallen back to around the $280 billion range, the lowest level since September 2025. Looking at a longer time horizon, since the high of roughly $315 billion in mid-May this year, the total supply has shrunk by approximately $21 to $23 billion, with a decline of nearly 7%!. (MISSING)

As the core settlement asset and liquidity source for crypto trading, the ongoing shrinkage of stablecoin supply is moving in lockstep with spot price pressure and rising fear sentiment. In the absence of new stablecoin minting and net inflows, the pool of U.S. dollar capital available to the market has narrowed further, weakening the incremental capital support required for short-term rebounds.

Future Price Outlook

glassnode stated that BTC has now fallen below the $75,600 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH-CB). If it continues to stay below $73,000 going forward, the market will enter a longer consolidation period.

In addition, glassnode noted that the largest liquidation levels for Bitcoin are around $60,000. These are positions established by bulls before the sharp price rally in early August, and price has not yet tested these entry points.

Hyperliquid's liquidation heatmap shows that if BTC continues to fall, there are large bull positions around $70,000 and $65,000, and a break below these levels would trigger significant liquidation intensity.

On November 10, Santiment noted that wallets holding 1 to 10 BTC have accumulated 10,076 Bitcoin over the past two weeks, while wallets holding 10 to 100 BTC have added 4,131 BTC, totaling more than 14,000 BTC, during the period when Bitcoin price fell toward $75,000. "These types of wallets are typically more patient than retail investors, often accumulating during market panic and selling off after price rallies. If price stabilizes at $75,000 and these holdings continue to rise, it will strengthen the signal that a local bottom is forming. If price breaks below the recent low and these wallets switch to selling, the signal will weaken."

On November 11, Santiment further stated that according to its statistics on social platforms including X, Reddit and Telegram, the ratio of bullish to bearish comments for BTC, ETH and XRP is 0.82:1, 0.88:1 and 0.49:1 respectively. Santiment believes that a clearly bearish retail sentiment may create conditions for a market rebound. If bearish comments continue to outnumber bullish ones, especially among large-cap crypto assets, the market may see a round of rebound.

Wintermute stated in a post on November 10 that after the U.S. midterm elections, Democrats regained control of both chambers of Congress, leading the market to reassess the regulatory risks facing the AI industry, and AI trades previously driven by favorable Washington policies have cooled down. If the Fed raises rates during the correction of AI assets, tightening liquidity and falling risk appetite may simultaneously put pressure on the crypto market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion last week, the largest weekly outflow since June, erasing all net inflows year-to-date; only Wednesday recorded net inflows during the week. At the same time, over $1 billion worth of positions in the market were liquidated in total, with Ethereum's liquidation volume exceeding that of Bitcoin.

Looking ahead, the market should remain cautious before Bitcoin reclaims the 50-week moving average. If Bitcoin closes below $73,000 and the 200-day moving average on the daily chart, the next level to watch is $68,000, and altcoins that saw large rallies earlier may face heavier selling pressure. The market may only turn bullish if Bitcoin reclaims and stabilizes above $80,000 on the daily chart, while spot Bitcoin ETFs resume weekly net inflows.