We’re raising our bitcoin price target to $1.6 million by 2036. Here’s why.

Over the past few weeks, I’ve been busy working with our Head of Research, Ryan Rasmussen, to update Bitwise’s annual “Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions” paper for bitcoin. The report examines the latest data on bitcoin and the economy to forecast bitcoin’s future returns, volatility, and correlations to other assets. It’s designed to help asset allocators understand how to fit bitcoin into portfolios.

You can read the full paper here.

I’ll be honest: When we sat down to write this update, I was worried about what we’d find. Last year, when we published the first edition of this report, bitcoin was marching toward its all-time high above $125,000, sentiment was upbeat, and macro conditions were benign. At the time, we forecast that bitcoin would rise to $1.3 million by 2035.

Since then, bitcoin has had a rough year. Prices fell more than 50% from October 2025 to June 2026, bottoming below $59,000. Sentiment cratered, and many in the media declared bitcoin “dead.” Meanwhile, the macro backdrop deteriorated with a war in the Middle East, sticky inflation, rising interest rates, and mounting concerns about an AI bubble.

I was afraid the data would force us to water down our forecast, dropping our 10-year outlook from $1.3 million to $1 million or lower. The media would have a field day.

But the numbers painted a very different picture.

Using the exact same model as last year with updated data, we’re raising our 10-year forecast from $1.3 million to $1.6 million. This boosts our projected compound annual growth rate from 28.3% to 34.3%.

How We Got There

Now to the math.

When you’re making a long-term forecast, there are really only two variables that matter: 1) how big of a market you’re going after, and 2) how much of that market you think you’ll capture. When we looked at the data, both variables looked remarkably strong.

For one, the market potential had grown substantially: The projected size of the store-of-value market over the next decade grew from $91 trillion to $110 trillion, given investors’ growing fears over persistent fiat debasement and high inflation. Meanwhile, the 10-year forecasted size for the institutional investment market grew from $216 trillion to $303 trillion. Other markets that bitcoin can address grew as well, including offshore wealth and emerging market currencies.

Bitcoin’s Projected Annual Growth Rate of 34.3% Puts It at $1.6 Million in 2036

Bitcoin's Valuation Framework

Source: Bitwise Asset Management with data from Bloomberg, IMF, IFAD, BCG, World Gold Council, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and EU Tax Observatory. Bitcoin price as of September 30, 2026. The as-of dates for current market sizes vary, resulting in different CAGR time periods for 2036 projections.

Bitcoin valuation framework and price targets are for illustrative purposes and are not a prediction of future results. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results.

* To account for gold already held by institutional investors, this analysis removed 5% of Institutional Investment Assets, bringing “Current Market Size” to $139.7 trillion instead of the full $147 trillion estimated by BCG.

That was the first part of the calculus. Other things equal, bigger addressable markets translate into a higher potential price if bitcoin succeeds.

At the same time, our belief in bitcoin’s ability to capture a significant share of these markets solidified further, for several reasons. Wealth management platforms like Wells Fargo and Merrill Lynch have moved towards bitcoin, not away; central banks and sovereign wealth funds have inched closer to it rather than retreating; and bitcoin’s cyclical volatility has continued to decline.

To be conservative, we ended up keeping our forecast of bitcoin’s share of each market consistent with last year’s report (although, to be honest, I was tempted to increase it). Combined with larger addressable markets, the math worked out to a higher target.

Counterpoints and Rebuttals

Of course, a skeptic would note a few things: The money flooding into store-of-value assets thus far has primarily gone into gold, not bitcoin; the past year has reinforced bitcoin’s vulnerability to big drawdowns; and the pace of ETF flows has slowed.

Fair enough. But we’d also note that bitcoin’s correlation to gold has moved higher; its 53% peak-to-trough loss is a far shallower move than we saw in previous bear markets; and despite slowing ETF purchases, institutions continued to add exposure through the entire drawdown—all of which is remarkable. That bitcoin made this sort of progress in a difficult year makes me very optimistic about what happens in a good one. Not to mention, Bitcoin’s share of the store of value market has grown from less than 1% a decade ago to more than 5% today.

If you have 15 minutes today, go read the paper. It’s a reminder that the past year, for all of its drama, was a pretty good one for bitcoin.

I think the next ten will be even better. 

Risks and Important Information

No Advice on Investment; Risk of Loss: Prior to making any investment decision, each investor must undertake its own independent examination and investigation, including the merits and risks involved in an investment, and must base its investment decision—including a determination whether the investment would be a suitable investment for the investor—on such examination and investigation.

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