Spot ETF data is improving, and macro headwinds are fading.
Author: Ma He, Foresight News
On September 21, Bitcoin briefly broke through $82,000, reaching a high of $82,100, with a 5-day consecutive rise on the daily chart, and is now consolidating around $81,000. The frenetic performance of altcoins has quickly warmed up the market. ETH broke through $2,700, ZEC exceeded $1,500, NEAR even surged to $4.35, doubling in value within a week. Tokens like ENA and ZAMA also recorded decent gains.
After a period of sideways trading, is the crypto market about to set a new direction soon?
Bitcoin Spot ETF Data Improves
After continuous net outflows since April this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs started to see large weekly net inflows in August. Three of those weeks had net inflows of nearly $1 billion, and the weekly net inflow on August 21 reached $1.92 billion, hitting a new high since October 2025.
In contrast, since August, the weekly net outflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs have not exceeded $500 million.
On September 20, Michael Saylor, founder of Strategy, once again released information related to the Bitcoin Tracker, saying, "A little more orange." According to previous patterns, orange dots represent Strategy's Bitcoin purchase records, which may imply that the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy usually discloses Bitcoin position changes the day after relevant news is released. According to the latest data, since the end of August this year, Strategy has bought back about 3,000 BTC, and its Bitcoin holdings have risen back to 845,050 coins, currently worth $68.76 billion.
For Ethereum spot ETFs, they also recorded large net inflows, with positive inflows for three consecutive months since July this year. Among them, August recorded $1.85 billion, hitting a new high since August 2025.
Bitmine, the largest listed institution holding ETH, is still buying continuously. According to the latest data, its holdings have risen to 5.85 million ETH (accounting for 4.83% of the total supply), currently worth $14.27 billion.
Macro Headwinds Ease
In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. The crypto market fell before the rate hike, but after the hike, the market started to rise slowly. In addition, the market currently expects only one more rate hike this year, and rate cuts may resume in 2027.
According to the latest Polymarket data, the market's probability of betting on a Fed rate hike in October this year is 55%. If there is another rate hike in October, the market may expect the Fed to stand pat after October.
The US-Iran situation has also seen new developments.
On September 20, according to CCTV International News, on the evening of September 19 local time, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran has listed 7 conditions for the US government to start any negotiations.
The message from Iran is clear: "If the US wants to get out of the predicament it created and avoid getting deeper, there is no other way but to accept Iran's conditions."
On September 20, US President Trump said he might be open to meeting with the Iranian President. Some major events may happen in the near future.
Future Trend
Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, posted that Bitcoin's weekly closing price has reclaimed the 50-week moving average (50W MA) for the first time in 45 weeks. Thorn said that historically, Bitcoin reclaiming the 50W MA is often seen as an important confirmation signal that the bear market bottom has formed. Currently, BTC has risen about 29% in the past 35 days.
Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin's entity-adjusted SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) 7-day moving average has reclaimed the 1.00 break-even line. This means that most tokens sold on-chain are currently in profit, and the price has not fallen immediately, indicating that buying pressure is strong enough to absorb profit-taking selling, which is a typical feature of a bull market. If this indicator stays above 1, it reflects stable demand; if it falls back below 1, it means this absorption force is fading. In the accompanying chart, the orange line is the adjusted SOPR, the gray line is the BTC price, the green area represents overall profitable selling, and the red area represents overall loss-making selling.
Famous trader Doctor Profit said that Bitcoin has broken through the 50-week moving average (MA50) currently at around $78,700. If this week's closing price can stay above this average, he will regard it as a confirmation signal for the start of a new bull market. The current trend is similar to the structure from 2022 to 2023: Bitcoin reclaimed the 50-week MA after being blocked for several consecutive weeks and experiencing a "short trap". He pointed out that Bitcoin has broken below and reclaimed the 50-week MA seven times in history, with five of them starting a bull market, and the other two forming false breakouts in 2011 and 2020 respectively.
He said that Bitcoin is currently still in the range of $71,000 to $82,000, and breaking through the $82,500 to $83,000 area will constitute a stronger confirmation; reclaiming the 50-week MA means that the above breakthrough may occur in the next few days. His personal strategy remains unchanged: he will continue to hold spot positions and target $88,000 after breaking through the remaining resistance.