After the resumption of direct US-Iran exchanges of fire, capital markets came under collective pressure, with Bitcoin hovering around the $77,000 mark.

Written by: ChandlerZ, Foresight News

On September 1, after the US announced an expansion of strikes against Iran, Bitcoin fell from a high of over $79,000 to around $77,200, with an intraday drop of up to 2.1%! (MISSING) and briefly breaking below $76,500 during the session.

This round of pullback occurred after a sharp rebound in August, when Bitcoin rose about 25%! (MISSING) for the best August performance since 2017, and climbed from around $64,000 to above $81,000 in late August. ETF inflows and concentrated short covering had jointly pushed up the price. After the US-Iran conflict re-escalated, oil prices, the US dollar, and US Treasury yields rose in sync, while crypto assets retreated along with tech stocks.

The US Central Command announced on September 1 that US forces had completed a new round of strikes against Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets, including air defense facilities, radar systems, maritime assets, mining capabilities, and communication facilities. The US said the operation was in response to Iran's recent attempted attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and US personnel. AP reported that Iran subsequently launched missiles and drones at multiple locations in the region, and Donald Trump warned Iran would face stronger strikes if it continued retaliation.

Before this round of air strikes, the US and Iran had ended a month-long military lull on August 30, and two oil tankers leaving the Strait of Hormuz were attacked shortly after. The two sides had reached a temporary arrangement in June, but shipping in the strait had not returned to normal. The Strait of Hormuz carried about 20%! (MISSING) of global oil shipments before the war, and Iran's effective blockade of the strait has lasted for several months.

WTI Closes at $90.22, Rate Hike Probability Rises to 66%! (MISSING)

On September 1, WTI crude rose by $4.46, or 5.2%! (MISSING), closing at $90.22 per barrel; Brent crude rose by $4.16, or 4.6%! (MISSING), closing at $94.65, both hitting their highest closing prices in five weeks. After the US resumed strikes against Iran, traders again increased pricing for Middle East supply disruptions.

Before the war broke out, Brent crude was around $72 per barrel, and the September 1 closing price was about 31%! (MISSING) higher than that level. Energy price increases have entered corporate cost sheets. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects the average aviation fuel price in 2026 to rise by nearly 70%! (MISSING) compared to 2025, and global airlines' fuel expenses will increase from $252 billion to about $350 billion. American Airlines disclosed that fuel and related taxes in the first half of 2026 increased by $2.6 billion year-on-year, a 48.7%! (MISSING) increase.

PVM analyst John Evans believes that the resumption of mutual missile attacks between the US and Iran increases the possibility of a long-term conflict. Analysts surveyed by Reuters in August expect shipping disruptions to keep oil prices above $80 per barrel in 2026. If tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, refineries and shipping companies will still have to bear longer transport routes, higher insurance costs, and delivery delays.

Energy prices have raised future inflation expectations, prompting US Treasury investors to demand higher yields. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.792%! (MISSING) on September 1, hitting 4.798%! (MISSING) intraday, the highest level since January 2025. CME FedWatch shows that traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points at the September 15-16 meeting, with the probability rising to 66.2%! (MISSING), up from 39.6%! (MISSING) a week ago.

Higher risk-free rates have depressed stock valuations. The S&P 500 fell 0.7%! (MISSING) on September 1, the Dow Jones fell 0.8%! (MISSING), the Nasdaq fell 1%! (MISSING), and the Russell 2000 fell 1.2%! (MISSING). The US dollar strengthened in sync, and spot gold briefly fell about 2.5%! to (MISSING) around $4,330 per ounce. The rate hike pressure from rising oil prices outweighed the safe-haven buying from geopolitical conflicts, and the opportunity cost of holding gold rose with US Treasury yields.

Bond sell-offs also spread to Europe and Asia. The UK 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.25%! (MISSING) intraday, the Japanese 10-year Treasury yield hit 3%! (MISSING), and European natural gas prices rose to a three-year high. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, believes that short-term real interest rates and dollar gains will still suppress gold, but sustained increases in energy and agricultural product prices may reboost gold's inflation hedge demand over a longer period.

ETF Inflows Continue, Bitcoin Leverage Positions Remain Moderate

Farside Investors data shows that US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of $216.7 million on August 31, resuming the net inflow that was interrupted the previous trading day. During the late August short squeeze window counted by Glassnode, US spot Bitcoin ETFs had a cumulative net inflow of $2.23 billion.

Ether spot ETFs had a net inflow of $87.68 million on August 31, attracting funds for 11 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.6 billion during this period. According to Bitfinex estimates, the fund demand for Ether relative to market size in the past week was about four times that of Bitcoin, and institutional funds still increased their crypto exposure through regulated products before the conflict escalated.

The Bitfinex trading team said that the recent rise was mainly driven by spot buying, open interest in futures increased slowly, and the premium of futures over spot remained low. Leveraged long positions did not accumulate rapidly during the rally, so the September 1 pullback has not yet triggered large-scale cascading liquidations. Bitfinex lists $77,100 as a short-term support, while Glassnode lists $81,000 to $86,000 as a dense selling range.

As of August 31, Bitcoin futures open interest was still below 700,000 BTC, lower than the阶段性 high of about 801,000 BTC on June 4; 30-day implied volatility fell to below 40%! (MISSING). The more actively traded put options on Deribit are concentrated at strike prices of $70,000, $73,000, and $74,000, and some traders have bought downside protection against an escalation of the conflict or a Fed rate hike.

Wintermute Focuses on $75,000, JPMorgan Warns of Stagflation Risk

Jasper De Maere, an over-the-counter trader at Wintermute, believes that under-allocated investors are still buying on pullbacks, and Bitcoin may continue to fluctuate before the September Federal Reserve meeting, with $75,000 and $72,000 as downside support and selling pressure near $82,000. Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, believes that the simultaneous rise in oil prices, US Treasury yields, and the dollar will limit Bitcoin's short-term upside.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management predicted in its mid-year outlook that long-term blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will push global economic risks toward stagflation—high inflation and slowing economic growth simultaneously—and reduce the space for rate cuts in 2026.

The US will release August non-farm payroll data on September 4, with market expectations of about 55,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.1%! (MISSING). Kyle Rodda, analyst at Capital.com, said that if the employment data is weaker than expected, the Federal Reserve will face greater resistance to raising interest rates during an economic slowdown. Subsequently, the September 15-16 interest rate decision will directly update the funding costs for the US dollar, US Treasury yields, and Bitcoin.