According to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability that the Clarity Act will be signed into law this year is only 49%!

Written by: Ma He, Foresight News

The Clarity Act's original target of being signed on July 4 has been missed, and the window for passage before the midterm elections is rapidly narrowing. While most Senate work can proceed behind the scenes during the summer recess, House procedures are currently stalled.

Senator Bill Hagerty recently stated that the Senate is expected to soon release the final text of the Clarity Act, allowing lawmakers and the digital asset industry to gain a clear understanding of the bill before debates resume. Additionally, this prepares for debates and votes after Congress reconvenes on July 13. With only about three weeks of effective working time left before the August recess, the bill still faces at least three unresolved disputes.

Resistance and Divisions

In May 2025, the Clarity Act was introduced by House Financial Services Committee Chairman French Hill (R-AR). In June of the same year, the bill passed the review of the Financial Services Committee and the Agriculture Committee, and was approved by the full House on July 17. The bill was officially named the "Clarity Act of 2025."

The Clarity Act aims to establish the first comprehensive federal regulatory framework for the U.S. digital asset market, with the core being to clarify the jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and CFTC. After 10 months of repeated bipartisan negotiations, the final Clarity Act totals 309 pages, focusing on the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC, stablecoins, anti-money laundering (AML), insider trading, and exemption rules for non-controlling developers, among other areas.

On May 14, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee passed the Clarity Act with 15 votes in favor and 9 against. Although the bill has recently been officially added to the Senate legislative calendar, Senate leadership failed to schedule a vote before the holiday due to unresolved bipartisan differences on stablecoin yield provisions, DeFi developer liability exemptions, and law enforcement and ethics details.

The crypto industry once expected the vote to be completed by the end of June or early July, and even some parties related to the Trump administration considered July 4 as a potential signing date.

However, bilateral closed-door negotiations broke down around June 9. A meeting on ethical issues involving Senators Kirsten Gillibrand, Ruben Gallego, Bernie Moreno, Cynthia Lummis, and Patrick Witt, executive director of the White House Crypto Council, failed to reach an agreement. The Republican Party and the White House withdrew a provision authorizing state attorneys general to file civil lawsuits against the Department of Justice for ethical law enforcement failures, leading to the breakdown of negotiations.

Since then, although the stablecoin yield provisions were temporarily resolved through compromises at the committee stage, DeFi developer liability exemptions and law enforcement concerns, as well as overall ethics and conflict-of-interest rules, still constitute major obstacles. Additionally, the Trump family's crypto asset disclosure issues have further amplified the sensitivity of ethical provisions.

However, there are also positive factors.

The Major County Sheriffs Association (MCSA) has shifted its stance on the Clarity Act from opposition to neutral. In a letter to Senate Banking Committee Chairman Tim Scott and Senator Elizabeth Warren, the organization stated that some of its concerns about Section 604 of the bill have been addressed. Previously, MCSA had warned that this section might weaken law enforcement capabilities against crypto-related illegal financial activities to some extent.

The core of Section 604 is to limit liability for developers of decentralized protocols. Supporters argue that developers should not be held intermediary liable for user behavior; however, law enforcement agencies previously expressed concern that this section might create regulatory and law enforcement "loopholes" that affect investigations into money laundering, ransomware, drug trafficking, and terrorist financing cases.

Probability of Clarity Act Being Signed into Law This Year Is Only 49%!

The current situation of the Clarity Act reflects the complexity of U.S. crypto legislation: while there is a bipartisan foundation and strong administrative and industry push, interest games over specific provisions and procedural time limits often create the biggest resistance in the final stretch. The committee's passage in May brought phased optimism, but the breakdown of ethical negotiations in June and the block before July 4 brought reality back.

With the upcoming release of the final text, the latest statements from the law enforcement community, and the opening of the three-week critical window after July 13, the progress of negotiations in the coming days and weeks will directly determine whether this "game-changing" bill can be implemented in 2026.

Currently, according to the latest data from Polymarket, the probability that Clarity will be signed into law this year is only 49%. Its market probability has long fluctuated around 60%, reflecting the market's cautious but still hopeful attitude towards whether the Clarity Act can be finally signed into law this year.

Investment bank Jefferies believes that if the bill is passed smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets,推动 banks, asset management institutions, and exchanges to accelerate the layout of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, and promote more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure companies to go public. If legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty and cause traditional financial institutions to slow down the advancement of blockchain businesses.

The report predicts that the progress of the bill will continue to affect the market performance of crypto-related stocks such as Circle, Coinbase, and Bullish, as well as some crypto assets. Jefferies also pointed out that in the long run, compared to regulatory changes, the bigger challenge facing stablecoin issuer Circle is still competition from banks, fintech, and payment companies.