Currently, the fear index is at a historic low.
Written by: Ma He, Foresight News
On July 1, the price of BTC once dropped to $57,800, a cumulative correction of over 50% from its all-time high of around $126,000, and also hit a new low since October 2024. Meanwhile, ETH is still fluctuating near the low of $1,600, and SOL has recorded a rare 10 consecutive monthly declines. The current market fear index is 17, with sentiment leaning towards extreme fear.
In terms of the macro market, the Nasdaq is still fluctuating at a high level of 26,200, and the S&P 500 is still oscillating at a high of 7,500. Since October 2025, Bitcoin has been correcting for nearly a year—why has BTC performed so poorly? Perhaps it is facing two major headwinds: large net outflows from spot ETFs and unfulfilled interest rate cut expectations.
From mid-May to June 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced an unprecedented wave of capital outflows. Since May 1, Bitcoin spot has rarely recorded only 9 days of net inflows, and the net inflow amounts are generally small. Since early May, its daily net inflow has not exceeded $140 million. Since May, there have been 4 days with daily net outflows exceeding $600 million, and large net outflows for consecutive days.
Obviously, a large number of institutions and retail investors have reduced their Bitcoin holdings through ETF channels, further amplifying spot selling pressure and making it difficult for prices to hold key support levels. Compared to the peak inflow period in 2025, this structural capital reversal has become one of the most direct reasons for the current BTC adjustment.
Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have also been dashed. According to Kalshi data, the market currently bets that the Fed will keep rates unchanged this year with a probability of 77.8%, and the probability of a 1-time rate cut (25 basis points) is only 19.6%.
Under persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical disturbances, market expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates or even further raise rates are rising. The high real yield environment has significantly increased the attractiveness of holding cash or bonds, making high-risk assets like Bitcoin face capital competition.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is hovering in a high range, and coupled with macro uncertainty, it further suppresses leveraged funds and risk appetite. Investors are worried that if the Fed delays rate cuts or shifts to a hawkish policy, it will prolong the adjustment cycle for risky assets.
Where Exactly Is the BTC Bottom Range
As BTC continues to fall, the market has begun to predict its bottom price. In the 2018 Bitcoin bear market, the bottom price (monthly average) fell about 77% from the top (monthly average), and in 2022, the bear market bottom price retracted 73% from the top. Assuming that this round of BTC retracts 60% from $116,600, the bottom may be around $46,000.
Glassnode Co-founder: The Bottom of This BTC Cycle Is Likely Between $46,000 and $54,000
Rafael, co-founder of Glassnode, tweeted that current institutional demand has not effectively absorbed the new supply of Bitcoin; instead, it is increasing selling pressure. Data shows that ETFs had a net outflow of 71,600 Bitcoins in the past month, while digital asset treasury companies only increased their holdings by 7,500. After deducting the issuance volume, the total net outflow of ETFs and DATs reached 77,000. Until this net outflow turns positive, any price rebound will face sustained selling pressure.
Rafael pointed out on June 5 (when the BTC price was around $62,000) that the bottom of this BTC cycle is likely between $46,000 and $54,000.
This range is mainly based on two on-chain indicators:
Realized Price ≈ $54,000, which serves as an important support for the overall market cost base.
Cycle Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) ≈ $46,200, where historical lows often form 5% above this level.
BIT: Bear Market Enters Final Stage, $50k~$55k May Become Key Range
In mid-June, BIT published an article stating that from a technical structure perspective, the 2025 top pattern is highly similar to that of 2021. Both cycles experienced a rapid surge, a break below the 21-week moving average, and a weakening after a phased rebound. Historical experience shows that the real bottom is often accompanied by a decline in trading volume and a narrowing of the oscillation range, rather than a quick reversal. Currently, the Fear and Greed Index is at a historic low, and the stochastic indicator has entered a deep oversold range.
Combined with Elliott Wave Theory, since the bear market started in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C adjustment structure. As the B-wave rebound ended after rising to $83,000 in mid-May, the current C-wave decline is unfolding, with the target area possibly pointing to around $50,000, and the low is expected to appear around the FIFA World Cup period (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, this bear market has entered its final stage, and the $50,000–$55,000 range may become the core bottom area of this bear market.
Wintermute: Crypto Market Has Entered Late Bear Market, But Real Bottom May Not Have Arrived Yet
Wintermute recently released a report arguing that current market sentiment has entered an extreme panic range, with the Fear and Greed Index remaining between 18 and 24, and about half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in floating loss—both close to the characteristics of historical bear market bottoms. However, the report points out that what is really missing at this stage is the reflow of funds: spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows of about $1.8 billion, and stablecoins and other liquidity indicators have not yet improved. The report believes that Bitcoin reserve companies have begun to reserve the right to sell BTC to pay dividends, which also means that the long-standing "permanent buying" in the market is gradually turning into "conditional buying."
Wintermute predicts that due to historical seasonality, the crypto market is unlikely to bottom out in the summer; it is more likely to see the real bottom around September to October. The subsequent trend will still depend on the macro environment, the cooling of the AI sector, and the return of capital flows to the crypto market.
JackYi: July-August May Be the Final Bottom Period for Bitcoin, and the Best Time to Bottom-Fish
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, tweeted: "Currently, this is the third wave of decline since October 11. According to wave theory and cycle laws, this is the final big drop for Bitcoin. What everyone cares most about is the bottom price this time. The main factors are the U.S. stock market and MicroStrategy. We don't know if the Fed's concerns about CPI will trigger changes in interest rate cut or even rate hike expectations, leading to a sustained correction in U.S. stocks. Secondly, black swan events or explosions often occur at the end of past bear markets; this time, none have occurred yet, so we need to observe closely. Based on Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, a 60% drop would be $51,000, and a 66% drop would be $43,000. In any case, July-August should be the final period, and the best time to bottom-fish—even the most worthwhile opportunity to operate in the next three years."
Jiang Zhuoer: This BTC Bear Market May Bottom Out in October-December This Year, with Price Around $42k-$44k
Jiang Zhuoer, founder and CEO of BTC.TOP mining pool, tweeted on June 25 that currently, MSTR's mNAV has fallen to 0.72, close to the historical low of 0.7 in May 2022, and is in the trough area of mNAV this cycle. However, mNAV bottoming usually leads BTC price bottoming by about 6 months: the last mNAV low corresponded to BTC around $31,000, while the real BTC bottom appeared at $15,500 in November 2022. Based on the four-year cycle and mathematical models, he predicts that this BTC bear market will bottom out in October-December this year, with a price range of about $42,000 to $44,000.
Polymarket Data: Probability of BTC Falling Below $40k This Year Is 30%!
According to the latest Polymarket data, the market currently bets that the probability of BTC falling below $55k this year is 79%, below $50k is 65%, below $40k is 30%, below $35k is17%, and below $30k is13%. Currently, the trading volume of this prediction market has exceeded $45.42 million.