Spending a million dollars to bet on their own relegation? This La Liga team narrowly avoided relegation on the pitch but ended up as a big loser in the prediction market.
Written by: KarenZ, Foresight News
On May 23, Osasuna lost the game but did not get relegated from La Liga.
In the 38th and final round of the 2025-2026 Spanish La Liga season, Osasuna lost 0-1 away to Getafe. According to the club's own post-match announcement, it was able to stay in La Liga because Elche drew with Girona, and the league table gears just clicked into a position favorable to it. Osasuna will stay in Spain's top league for the eighth consecutive season.
Two weeks later, another page of the ledger was turned up in this relegation battle: Osasuna officially admitted that the club had purchased relegation risk protection through insurance broker Howden, with a premium of 1.2 million euros; if it had been relegated, it would have received a payout of 6 million euros.
Another Page of the Ledger on Relegation Night
What really pushed the incident to the center of the prediction market controversy was another chain in media reports.
On June 4, according to an exclusive report by Semafor, a related party of an unnamed Spanish club bet more than $1 million on the prediction market platform Kalshi, wagering that it would not win a key game at the end of the season. Intermediaries such as Game Point Capital and Greenlight Commodities appeared in the transaction path. The counterparty was said to be quantitative trading firm Susquehanna, which earned more than $1 million.
On June 8, Osasuna issued an official statement confirming that it had purchased relegation risk insurance but emphasized that the club's involvement was "strictly limited" to buying protection from Howden. On the same day, Protos pointed the anonymous club in Semafor's report to Osasuna, while also noting that Osasuna's official documents only mentioned Howden and did not mention Kalshi, Susquehanna, Game Point Capital, or Greenlight.
To be more precise: Osasuna confirmed it bought relegation insurance; Semafor first reported that an anonymous La Liga team hedged relegation risk through Kalshi; Protos later connected the two, believing that club was Osasuna, but the complete details of the transaction chain have not been officially confirmed by the club.
On the pitch, it was a relegation battle; in the club's statement, it was an insurance policy; in media reports, there was an event contract on relegation risk. The combination of these three things made the story eye-catching.
Relegation Can Also Be Financialized
It's no surprise that football clubs fear relegation.
Relegation takes away broadcast revenue, ticket popularity, sponsorship negotiation power, and player valuations. For small and medium-sized clubs, it's not a single game loss but a collapse of an entire business model.
Osasuna's official statement was also quite restrained: purchasing protection through Howden with a premium of 1.2 million euros and a payout of 6 million euros if relegated; La Liga was informed, and the club's auditor and chairman of the control committee were also notified.
What really sharpened this incident was the unconfirmed transaction chain in media reports.
According to Semafor's report, several Wall Street-familiar roles appeared in the relevant transaction chain: Game Point Capital, a sports insurance broker that does risk management for teams; Greenlight Commodities (originally an institution focused on renewable energy credits) that assists institutions in entering prediction markets; and Susquehanna, a quantitative trading firm willing to take on counterparty risk.
Game Point Capital CEO Will Hall told Semafor that they wanted to see how prediction markets handle such "large, binary outcome" risks.
This is the most charming and dangerous part of prediction markets. They can turn the world's uncertainties into prices. Wars, elections, interest rates, sports games, weather, policy votes—all can be put into a "yes or no" box. Supporters say it's more honest than commentators and faster than polls; critics see another picture: real-world anxieties are cut into chips, and information advantages become profits.
The Osasuna incident is particularly sensitive because the subject is not oil prices, exchange rates, or some distant macro indicator, but whether a team will fall from La Liga.
Players fight on the pitch, fans pray in the stands, while another group of people calculate how much relegation is worth.
It touches on the core question of prediction markets: when real-world events are financialized, who can trade, who holds information, and who has the ability to influence outcomes?
More tricky questions follow: if a team's stakeholders really short their own team or take positions related to unfavorable outcomes for themselves, how should their compliance be addressed? Even if the transaction is packaged as insurance or hedging, as long as the subject is directly anchored to match results and relegation fate, the market can hardly see it as a purely financial tool.
When Prediction Markets Meet Regulation
On May 26, three days after Osasuna avoided relegation, Spain's Ministry of Social Rights, Consumer Affairs and 2030 Agenda initiated penalty proceedings against Polymarket and Kalshi, and requested the temporary blocking of the two platforms' websites in Spain as a precautionary measure before the final ruling on the case.
The explanation from Spain's Directorate General for Gambling Regulation (DGOJ) was straightforward: prediction markets allow users to buy and sell shares related to the outcomes of future events, with prices reflecting the probability of different outcomes; in the Spanish regulatory context, such transactions targeting future uncertain outcomes are considered to have a gambling nature, so operating locally requires obtaining specific administrative licenses. The announcement also mentioned that the relevant proceedings are expected to take 3 to 4 months.
Kalshi's identity in the U.S. is completely different. It emphasizes that it is regulated by the CFTC, is a Designated Contract Market (DCM), and trades event contracts.
Interestingly, professional football is not just passively involved in prediction markets. In April 2026, La Liga announced a multi-year partnership with Polymarket, making Polymarket its "official prediction market partner" in the U.S. and Canada. In May, Serie A USA also announced a multi-year regional partnership with Polymarket, making Polymarket the official and exclusive prediction market partner of Serie A in the U.S.
At the same table, it is called a financial market in the U.S. and unlicensed gambling in Spain and many other places. This identity split is the core conflict in the expansion of prediction markets.
The Web3 circle is no stranger to this gray area. Polymarket pushed prediction markets into the public eye during the U.S. election. Many people began to believe that market prices can tell the truth earlier than experts.
But the Osasuna incident pushes the problem further. Prediction markets are no longer just a way for retail investors to watch the world; they are starting to approach institutional risk management. When insurance brokers, sports consultants, intermediaries, and quantitative trading firms appear together, things are no longer as simple as "users placing bets."
This may be the moment when prediction markets really grow up, and also the moment when they need to be constrained the most.
If it wants to become financial infrastructure, it must answer the oldest questions in financial markets: who can trade, who holds inside information, who has the ability to influence outcomes, and who is responsible for market integrity.
The sports field is particularly tricky because match results do not come from natural laws but from people. Players, coaches, management, referees, injuries, tactics, and psychological pressure can all change the outcome.