Their win rate on Polymarket is as high as 98%!。(MISSING)

Author: Ma He, Foresight News

On May 18, Nicolas Vaiman, founder of Bubblemaps, and Deebs, head of investigations (a former U.S. military officer who concealed his real name for security reasons), revealed to the public: They found nine highly connected anonymous accounts on Polymarket, which collectively netted over $2.4 million from prediction markets related to U.S. military operations, with a win rate as high as 98%!。(MISSING)

Bubblemaps analyzed these accounts in detail on Twitter. They almost exclusively bet on military events related to the 2026 US-Iran conflict, with betting timing so precise it’s chilling—often placing bets days before key operations occur, and preferring low-odds long-term options.

This isn’t just "good luck". After Bubblemaps used technology to visualize transactions in Polymarket’s "U.S. first strike on Iran before February 28" market, they discovered a huge pink cluster that no one on X had mentioned before.

After further tracking, they linked the initial 4 accounts to another 5 through time windows, transaction sizes, and fund flow paths. The fund paths of the nine accounts are highly consistent: transferred into a shared wallet network via centralized exchanges in a very short time, suspected of using professional services to hide traces.

4 Core Accounts Earned $400k Each

On the early morning of February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched large-scale joint strikes codenamed "Operation Epic Fury" and "Operation Lion’s Roar". U.S.-Israeli forces launched nearly 900 strikes against Iran within 12 hours, targeting nuclear facilities, missile bases, military command centers, and hiding places of top leaders. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, several of his family members, and senior Revolutionary Guard officials were killed in the first round of strikes.

As early as the day of the strike on February 28, Bubblemaps publicly marked six "fresh" accounts. Most of these accounts were created and funded within 24 hours before the strike, accurately betting on "the U.S. will strike Iran before February 28", collectively netting about $1 million (some reports say $1.2 million). At the time, market odds were extremely low, but these accounts took heavy positions. Bubblemaps called it "suspected insider trading".

Five months later, the nine-account cluster they found is larger and has a higher win rate.

The four core accounts were created a few days before February 28, each earning about $400k; the subsequent five accounts were linked through fund flows and overlapping transactions. The nine accounts placed more than 80 bets, almost all on U.S. military operations: the first strike on February 28, the specific time of Khamenei’s elimination, the announcement of a ceasefire agreement, etc. They even spread bets across multiple dates to maximize profits, while occasionally placing one or two small losing bets (such as on February 20), suspected of covering their tracks.

Bubblemaps listed nine Polymarket wallet addresses (0x09d3273fa76282ce09f4f35a87d6f087c05f4e84, etc.) and emphasized that these accounts have long dominated the profit and loss rankings. Funds eventually flow to a shared wallet network, showing signs of professional money laundering or service traces.

Vaiman stated bluntly: "Luck can’t explain these numbers." Deebs added that potential insider sources are numerous—government officials, military planners, intelligence analysts, and even military family members.

Earlier this year, U.S. Army Staff Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was accused of using classified intelligence to bet on Venezuelan special operations on Polymarket, investing $34,000 and making $400k before quickly withdrawing funds and attempting to delete his account. Polymarket actively cooperated with law enforcement, eventually leading to the prosecution. The Van Dyke case is regarded as a landmark case of insider trading in prediction markets.

This time, the nine-account cluster’s profit is six times that of Van Dyke’s, with a higher win rate, and it’s completely focused on US-Iran military events.

Bubblemaps exclusively shared the investigation with "60 Minutes", which aired on the evening of May 17 and attracted considerable attention. CBS reported that Polymarket has established an AI monitoring and blockchain forensics system, which notifies law enforcement once suspicious activities are detected, and emphasized that "insider trading is not welcome on the platform."

As of press time, Bubblemaps has not directly linked the nine accounts to any specific entity or government department, only stating that "the connections and near-perfect win rate raise serious suspicions."

Anti-Insider vs. Following Insiders

Insider trading makes many market participants feel unfair, and prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are taking more measures to combat insider trading.

At the end of March this year, Polymarket updated its market integrity rules for its DeFi platform and the U.S. exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The updated rules clearly define three core prohibited insider trading behaviors:

• Trading using stolen confidential information—If a participant possesses confidential information about the outcome or potential outcome of the underlying event, and using such information would violate a pre-existing trust or confidentiality obligation owed to another person or entity, the participant shall not trade any contracts.

• Prohibiting trading using illegal insider information—A participant shall not trade using confidential information provided to them by another person if the information was provided by someone who owes a pre-existing trust or confidentiality obligation to another person, and the participant knows or has reason to know that the person providing the information would themselves be prohibited from using the information to trade.

• Trading by persons who can influence outcomes—If a participant has the authority or influence sufficient to affect the outcome of the underlying event, they shall not participate in trading any contracts.

However, there are always loopholes in rules. Since insider trading cannot be completely eliminated, some so-called "insider following projects" that have bad intentions are also highly controversial. These applications organize trading accounts with abnormally high win rates for users, or mark transactions with suspicious timing and abnormal amounts, helping users copy these transactions with one click.

Kreo’s selling point is to help users "find insider traders earlier than others", while Polycool directly posts a "Polymarket Insider Trading Guide" on its official website, stating that "this is not the stock market, betting with non-public information won’t land you in jail, and the rules of decentralized prediction markets are a completely different set."

The question arises: Is following insider trading addresses a violation?

Currently, the official has not responded.

However, so-called "insider following platforms" such as PolyGUN and Polycule have been hacked this year, losing tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands of dollars.